Why the Padres, with a 5 percent chance of winning, chose to buy.

When the San Diego Padres acquired starting pitcher Rich Hill and first baseman Ji-Man Choi from the Pittsburgh Pirates in a trade, they declared themselves buyers, not sellers.

The New York Mets, San Diego Padres, and Chicago Cubs were the teams that garnered the most media attention ahead of the 2023 trade deadline (Aug. 2 at 6 p.m. ET).

The Mets (50 wins and 55 losses) and Padres (52 wins and 55 losses) had the first and third highest payrolls in the majors, but were underperforming in the low 4s. Payroll and performance were inversely correlated. The National League Central Chicago Cubs were on the borderline of being a buyer or a seller with a very ambiguous record.

The Mets chose to sell, trading their highest-paid player, Max Scherzer, to the Texas Rangers. The Mets also added Justin Verlander after going 101-61 and reaching the postseason last year. Two days later, the team traded Verlander to his hometown Houston Astros. He won the American League Cy Young Award last year with Houston.

The Cubs (53-53) also announced last week that they would not trade outfielder Cody Bellinger, formalizing their declaration as buyers rather than sellers. Bellinger signed a one-year deal and will become a free agent after the season. The Los Angeles Dodgers could use Bellinger as they look to turn their fortunes around and make a run at the postseason. The Cubs acquired third baseman Jaime Candelario from the Washington Nationals on July 1.

The Padres didn’t make a trade announcement. Only the media was reporting that the team was out of contention for the postseason and that it was best to trade starting left-hander Brake Snell and closer Josh Hader for prospects.

Given the way GM A.J. Preller has been running the organization, a blockbuster trade should have been the first thing to happen. Instead, the team remained quiet, signaling that they weren’t giving up on a postseason run by acquiring Hill and first baseman Choi at the deadline.

The Padres also dropped a winnable game to the Colorado Rockies the day before. They failed to capitalize on a bases-loaded walk in the 10th inning of extra innings and allowed a game-tying sacrifice fly to third baseman Manny Machado, who lost the ball on a tag play, to fall to 3-4. The Padres are 10-0 in extra innings this year.

That’s because none of their high-paid players, except for Kim Ha-Sung, have done their jobs. They don’t expect to win late-game comebacks. In the ninth inning, with the score tied 3-3, Ha Sung Kim doubled with two outs, but Fernando Tatis Jr. struck out to end the game.

The Padres, who now sit at a sub-.500 winning percentage, are 5.0 games behind the third-place Miami Marlins (57-50) in the NL wild-card race.

One of the reasons the Padres are not giving up on the season is their run differential in July. For the Cubs, run differential is also a factor that turned them into buyers.

The Padres had the best record in the NL West in July. They are 15-10 with a run differential of +45. The Dodgers are 13-10 at +20 and the Giants are 12-13 at -20.

For the season, the Padres are third in the NL in run differential at +62. The Dodgers (59-45) are +88, while the wild-card-leading Giants (58-49) are just +23. The Cubs are also fourth in the NL at +56. The division-leading Cincinnati Reds (59-49) are +4 and the second-place Milwaukee Brewers (57-50) are -16.바카라사이트

With these numbers, GM Preller can’t just write off the season. The current Padres and the 2021 Atlanta Braves are very similar.

On August 1, 2021, Atlanta was 52-54, 5.0 games out of the NL East lead and 8.0 games out of the wild card. They finished the season with an 88-73 record and won the division. The Padres are now 52-55, 5.0 games out of the wild card race and 8.5 games out of the division.

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